2027: Controversy Trails Gbenga Abiola’s Candidacy as Agege APC Fears Loss of Presidential, Governorship Votes

Controversy has continued to trail the emergence of Hon. Gbenga Abiola, popularly known as Agbelebu, as the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for the Agege Constituency I seat in the Lagos State House of Assembly election, with party stakeholders expressing concerns over the potential impact on the party’s presidential and governorship votes in the 2027 general elections.

The growing discontent, according to sources within the party, is linked to questions surrounding Mr Abiola’s grassroots influence, political structure and ability to mobilise voters beyond the network of his former political benefactors.

Some APC stakeholders and grassroots mobilisers in Agege reportedly fear that internal divisions over his candidacy could weaken the party’s electoral machinery and create an opening for opposition parties to make inroads into an area traditionally regarded as an important component of the APC’s electoral base in Lagos.

The controversy has intensified following the defection of Alhaji Ganiyu Egunjobi, a two-term former chairman of Agege Local Government, from the APC to the Allied Peoples’ Movement (APM).

Mr Egunjobi, who previously served as Mr Abiola’s political superior, has reportedly secured the APM ticket for the same legislative constituency, setting the stage for a contest between the former local government chairman and his former vice-chairman.

The development has raised concerns within the APC over the possible fragmentation of its grassroots support ahead of the 2027 elections.

The disagreement surrounding Mr Abiola’s candidacy reportedly centres on his political experience and the extent of his independent support base.

Some party insiders contend that his political rise was closely associated with the support of political godfather, under whose political structure he held several positions, including Sole Administrator of Agege Local Government, Secretary to the Local Government and Vice Chairman.

The critics argue that the loss of the structure associated with his former political patron could present challenges for his campaign, particularly in an election that requires extensive ward-level organisation and voter mobilisation.

However, these claims reflect the views of the critics and would require independent verification. The extent of Mr Abiola’s current grassroots support, as well as the level of loyalty retained by party members following the defection, remains unclear.

A purported APC ward executive, speaking anonymously, was quoted as saying that Mr Abiola had not independently won a major electoral contest.

The source reportedly questioned whether the APC could sustain its electoral strength in Agege while managing the internal disagreement surrounding the assembly candidate.

Mr Egunjobi’s reported movement to the APM has become a significant talking point in the political calculations surrounding Agege Constituency I.

With the former council chairman now positioned to challenge Mr Abiola, the contest could extend beyond the assembly race and influence the wider political mobilisation efforts of the parties involved.

The potential consequences for the APC include the diversion of campaign resources, competing mobilisation networks and discontent among party members who may not support the assembly candidate.

Political observers also note that the impact of such a split on the presidential and governorship elections cannot be determined solely by the outcome of the assembly contest.

Although party-level divisions may affect mobilisation, voters can make different choices across the various positions on the ballot. Consequently, any projection of APC vote losses would require reliable polling data, historical voting figures and evidence of changes in voter allegiance.

The central concern among some APC stakeholders is whether the dispute over the Agege Constituency I assembly ticket could affect the party’s performance in the presidential and Lagos governorship elections.

Agege’s voting patterns and the strength of its party mobilisation networks make the constituency relevant to broader electoral calculations in Lagos. However, the precise size of its contribution to APC presidential and governorship votes would need to be established using official election results.

A party stakeholder, speaking anonymously, reportedly raised concerns about the ability of the APC to mobilise voters across the different elections amid the internal disagreement.

“How do we deliver maximum votes for the presidential and governorship elections when our grassroots engine in Agege has been torn apart?”

The statement reflects the concerns attributed to the source, rather than an independently established forecast of the party’s electoral performance.

The APC’s ability to retain its support in Agege will depend on several factors, including its internal reconciliation efforts, the strength of its campaign organisation, voter turnout and the strategies adopted by opposition parties.

The political dispute involving Abiola and Egunjobi has placed the Agege Constituency I race within a broader debate over political succession, party loyalty and grassroots influence.

For the APC, the challenge extends beyond defending a legislative seat. It also involves maintaining cohesion among party members and preserving the organisational networks that support its candidates across the ballot.

For the APM and other opposition parties, the reported defection presents an opportunity to compete for voters who may be dissatisfied with the APC’s candidate selection and internal processes.

Whether the controversy surrounding Mr Abiola’s candidacy will translate into measurable losses for the APC in the presidential and governorship elections remains to be seen.

As the 2027 elections approach, the outcome will depend on the parties’ ability to manage internal disagreements, mobilise supporters and persuade voters across Agege’s wards.